After more than one hundred secondments in four years, the GEOCEP project has successfully bridged the gap between complex modelling of climate change and energy policy.
From 2022 to 2026, GEOCEP established an international network for the exchange of knowledge and research on climate change and energy policy modelling. Through secondments, the project connected five European beneficiaries and sixteen world-leading institutions under the central direction of the coordinating institution. A total of 116 early-career and experienced researchers conducted over 450 person-months of research and development activities.
Network created by the GEOCEP project, through secondments, from 2022 to 2026. Each line represents a channel of scientific exchange created by the implementation of secondments and each box, a participating institution, with the coordinating institution in the center. (Illustration: Patrick Lenz)
GEOCEP engaged in the core principles of the Research and Innovation Staff Exchange, part of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions of the European Commission: complex challenges require the transfer of knowledge across borders and the enhancement of skilled research and development personnel. In this respect, the project marks a milestone in the long-term trajectory of the research consortium by linking past successes with future potential. The project has produced notable outcomes for each of its four work packages.
Results per work packages
In the first work package, researchers developed advanced models to explain the drivers of social and technological innovation. These models have improved our understanding of the behaviour of economic agents by examining the impact of energy and climate policies, pricing and other exogenous shocks, as well as green nudges. At another level of analysis, the researchers examined preferences for environmental goods, health risks, and the characteristics of policy design. Finally, they modelled the impact of energy policies on grid congestion and the strategic deployment of energy storage.
In the second work package, researchers have accelerated the development of integrated and hybrid climate change models, which require extensive computer calculations. They have employed advanced machine learning and generative flow networks to enhance integrated assessment models, which can be used to study topics such as fire risks and climate change mitigation pathways. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have also been used to analyse the impact of natural disasters on financial stability.
In the third work package, the researchers broadened our understanding of the impact of climate change on societies and human health. For instance, they developed sophisticated models to understand the effects of extreme climate-related events on household well-being and regional flooding. The models also addressed the impact of climate change on areas such as innovation output, ecosystem services, water insecurity and air pollution.
In the fourth work package, the researchers made progress in understanding the complex dynamics of international cooperation, national policy and finances in relation to climate change and the transition to renewable energy sources. For instance, they investigated the impact of climate security perceptions on migration routes. At the regional level, they investigated the impact of agri-environmental subsidies on crop yields and biodiversity. Finally, they used models to analyse financial parameters, including the evolution of energy commodity prices and investment decisions relating to the environmental dimension.
Scientific outputs and qualified personnel
These work packages have produced high-quality scientific results. These results have been published in over fifty articles in leading international peer-reviewed journals, including Nature Energy, Nature Sustainability, the Review of Economic Studies, Policy, and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. The consortium has also organised seven international conferences and six workshops. Researchers presented nearly two hundred papers at conferences, workshops and seminars.
Furthermore, the project has greatly improved the qualifications of R&D personnel. Twenty-six PhD students benefited from the project, making progress on or completing their dissertations. During their secondments, they gained specialised expertise in data analysis and modelling. Secondments have substantially boosted their employability in the academic and international organisation job markets. Finally, the project's models have had a practical impact on policy. Last but not least, the consortium has secured a follow-on project — Socio-Economic Energy-Climate Modelling for the European Green Transition (M4G) — thus fulfilling its promise to ensure the continuity of the network.